Whenever handicappers talk about racing at a half mile track, such as Saratoga Casino and Raceway, they always seem to immediately dismiss horses starting from post eight. While there are many reasons why that theory makes plenty of sense, there seems to be a trend toward horses from outside posts factoring a lot more often than they used to. The uptick in the percentage of horses from the eight hole winning at Saratoga was never more evident than on Wednesday night. The 13-race program saw the participants wearing the “8” saddle pad prevail an incredible five times over the course of the evening. In seasons past, the likelihood of horses winning from post position eight had been almost exactly 5 percent. More recently, the percentage has risen some and after Wednesday night’s action, that number went up even more. Of the five “8” horses to win on Wednesday, only three actually started from post eight as scratches allowed a couple of the winners to move in a few spots. The “8” horses didn’t just win five times on the evening but in eight of the 13 races on the night, the “eight” finished in the top three. Success from post eight almost always goes hand-in-hand with value and Wednesday night was no different. Amongst the five victors starting from the outside on the evening, win prices included $17.40, $19.60, $31.80 and a hefty $57.00. The influx of winners this week that had the eight post brings to the forefront the idea of getting a price that you otherwise wouldn’t have gotten. You have to look no further than Friday night for a perfect case in point where a horse that figures to be a main threat to win a particular race, goes off at a super inflated price just because the “8” saddle pad is attached. Nowerland Nathan was coming off of three wins in his last four tries when he made his first start for new connections in Friday night’s trotting event for $10,000-$15,000 claimers. Starting from post eight, the horse that hadn’t been higher odds than 5-1 in his last five races was suddenly dismissed at 17-1. Leading driver Billy Dobson was at the controls and floated the five year old trotter out at the start and made an early move, trying to clear the lead just past the opening quarter. After getting parked out, the sharp trotter persevered and powered away late in the mile despite racing the majority of it on the outside. The win for Nowerland Nathan came in 1:58.2 and resulted in a $36.20 win mutual, a price greatly inflated even from what he would have been had he started from, say, post five or six. Incredible value because of the “8” saddle pad. While there are obviously great reasons to avoid any horse that has the eight hole, time after time we have seen examples of incredibly inflated prices on strong competitors simply because they drew the eight hole. The handicapping key here is to make sure you don’t just “throw out” any eight horse from your selections just because they start from the outside as you may just have some hidden value, that is a horse that appears to be as good as any in the bunch but has the daunting task of overcoming the post eight. Another handicapping tool that could be your key to value is finding the hot barn. Like in any other sport, people or teams get hot. To spot the hot barn has always been a key handicapping tool and right now there are a pair of longtime Saratoga trainers that have seen their stables put together strong stretches.
0 comments:
Post a Comment